Mexico / Battery destination decomposition
Purpose. Destination decomposition supporting the Mexico/Battery card claim that the manufacturing-basket export delta is absorbed primarily by USA and Canada [1].
Finding
In the 2022–2024 trade post-window, USA + Canada absorbed 76.6% of Mexico's battery manufacturing-basket exports ($3.65B of $4.76B annual mean). The share of the delta (post-window minus pre-window mean) is 88.4%, with USA alone at 86.5% ($1.78B/yr) and Canada 1.9%. The USA + Canada delta share exceeds the 60% diagnostic threshold used here, supporting the interpretation that Mexico's battery-basket growth is tied to regional battery-buildout demand. The HS6-level delta-share check holds the line: USA + Canada delta share ranges from 65.6% (electrolyte HS 382499) to 98.8% (capacitance testing equipment HS 903089) across all eight top growth codes, with USA the top destination for every one.
Top growth HS6 codes: destination splits
| HS6 | Primary green-dictionary label | Post 2022–24 mean ($M) | USA+CAN post share | USA+CAN delta share | USA delta share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 847989 | Module-Pack Assembly; Module Assembly | 853 | 85.6% | 95.6% | 91.2% |
| 850760 | Lithium Ion Electric Accumulators | 338 | 74.0% | 77.3% | 73.0% |
| 761699 | Battery Casing | 601 | 94.1% | 98.4% | 97.2% |
| 903180 | Cell Conditioning; Aging | 666 | 69.1% | 79.0% | 84.8% |
| 382499 | Electrolyte | 363 | 50.9% | 65.6% | 64.7% |
| 850790 | Parts of Accumulators | 218 | 89.1% | 83.9% | 82.8% |
| 903089 | Cell Conditioning: Battery Cycle Testing | 140 | 93.1% | 98.8% | 99.0% |
| 392020 | Separator; Polymers of Propylene, Non-Cellular | 293 | 89.8% | 97.4% | 93.1% |
Methodology
Pre-window 2017–2019 annual mean; post-window 2022–2024 annual mean. Source: BACI HS17 V202601. Manufacturing-only basket from data/processed/hs6_baskets.json (excludes Raw Material). Per-HS6 top-five destination tables (post-window mean and delta) are produced alongside this summary by the generator script [2].
References
- [1]
drafts/battery-case-cards-v1.md. Mexico / Battery cell. - [2]
scripts/build_mex_destination_evidence.py. Produces the summary plus per-HS6 top-five destination tables. Re-run for full per-HS6 destination detail.