China-HQ green FDI readiness / Method appendix
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Solar case notes

Purpose. Per-cell observations for the five solar country-technology pairs in the narrative batch, organized by supply-chain position family [1].

Data sources. Per-cell capability and trade outcomes from data/processed/country_tech_quadrants.csv. Project lists from data/processed/china_outward_fdi.json. HS6 decomposition from data/processed/case_card_hs6_decomposition.csv. Manufacturing-only BACI cut by default; factory-stage RCA reported per cell. The finished-product proxy HS 854140 in HS17 nomenclature bundles PV cells/modules with LEDs; relevant for Vietnam and Malaysia (see [1] Caveats).

Windows. Capability window 2015–2019. China-HQ FDI window 2020–2024. Trade pre-window 2017–2019; trade post-window 2022–2024.

1. Vietnam / Solar

Module export entry with China-HQ FDI co-located; factory-stage RCA crossed 1.0. The Solar parallel to Hungary/Battery.

Vietnam entered with high direct solar PC (0.689) and rising momentum (+0.14/yr in the pre-window). Broad RCA footprint 0.639; manufacturing-only solar exports already $4.12B at RCA 0.79 and factory-stage RCA 0.88. The China-HQ FDI signal is the largest project count among Solar cells: 18 projects and $4.18B in disclosed capex. The single largest record is Huitian Adhesive ($1.50B, completed 2023), an EVA-encapsulant supplier rather than a module assembler; the Chinese-brand module makers follow: Jinko Solar Bac Giang ($750M, completed 2022) and Quang Ninh ($500M, completed 2021), Runergy Nghe An ($440M, completed 2023), Boviet Solar ($350M, completed 2023), and JA Solar Bac Ninh ($189M, completed 2022).

Manufacturing exports rose to $11.52B (+180%); manufacturing RCA crossed to 1.17 and factory-stage RCA crossed to 1.31. HS 854140 (PV modules with HS17 LED bundling) accounts for $5.01B, or 67.7% of the $7.40B basket increase. Secondary contributors are EVA-encapsulant ethylene polymers (HS 390761, $570M), silicon wafers (HS 381800, $449M), and aluminum for module mounting (HS 760120, $395M). Vietnam already exported $10.73B in 2022, up from a $3.6–5.0B range in 2017–2019, so most of the measured 2022–2024 jump predates the largest China-HQ completions and was driven by pre-2020 capacity (Trina, JinkoSolar Phase 1, JA Solar Phase 1).

The pattern is consistent with capability selection: a demonstrated solar export base, China-HQ capital co-located on top of it, finished-product export expansion crossing factory-stage RCA = 1. The 2022–2024 trade jump should not be attributed causally to the most recent China-HQ projects, which commenced or completed late in the window.

PC pre 0.689 · FDI $4.18B / 18 projects · finished share 67.7% · factory RCA 0.88 → 1.31 · signal strong_export_entry

2. Malaysia / Solar

The incumbent ASEAN solar exporter did not expand by shipping more modules; it moved upmarket into the equipment that other countries' solar buildouts use.

Malaysia entered the FDI window with the highest direct solar PC in the panel (0.962), broad RCA footprint 1.113, and $13.37B of manufacturing-only solar exports already in place at RCA 2.35 and factory-stage RCA 2.78. The China-HQ FDI signal is 10 projects and $3.34B in disclosed capex, spanning the supply chain rather than concentrating on assembly: Kibing Solar Kimanis ($1.50B, announced 2024) and Kota Kinabalu ($670M, completed 2022) are photovoltaic-glass projects; two Longi module/wafer projects ($330M and $290M, both 2023) and Risen Energy ($330M, completed 2021) round out the disclosed set.

Manufacturing exports rose to $21.75B (+63%); manufacturing RCA to 2.63; factory-stage RCA to 3.04. HS 854140 contributes $100M, or 1.2% of the basket delta. The largest contributors are module-production process equipment (HS 848620, $3.20B, 38.1%), aluminum for module frames (HS 760120, $1.45B, 17.3%), wafer-manufacturing process equipment (HS 848690, $1.30B, 15.4%), polysilicon (HS 280461), additional wafer-handling equipment (HS 848640), inverters (HS 854129), and module-glass-loading equipment (HS 847989). The decomposition reads as a manufacturing-tools and intermediates portfolio. The 1.2% finished-product share is an upper bound under HS17 854140 (LED contamination is material relative to PV in Malaysia), but the equipment-platform reading is robust because the bound is already well below the family threshold.

The pattern is consistent with an incumbent solar economy moving up the value chain into tooling. Malaysia's pre-existing electronics base, solar-glass and polysilicon capacity, and machinery-export base are the substrate; co-located China-HQ capital extends rather than creates the trajectory.

PC pre 0.962 · FDI $3.34B / 10 projects · finished share 1.2% · factory RCA 2.78 → 3.04 · signal moderate_growth

3. United States / Solar

Domestic-market platform: equipment and intermediate exports grew $7.4B while finished-module exports declined and factory-stage RCA fell, because output serves home demand under the IRA rather than export. The United States is the largest net finished-module importer in the panel, so finished-export RCA understates the buildout rather than signaling a weak export base.

The United States entered with low direct solar PC (0.048, below the 0.10 floor) but a large manufacturing-basket export base ($35.41B at RCA 1.17 and factory-stage RCA 1.27). The broad RCA footprint (0.939) ran substantially higher than the direct PC measure. The panel lists nine projects and $2.16B in disclosed capex; the largest record (Maxeon Albuquerque $1.0B, announced 2024) is Singapore-HQ TCL-linked rather than mainland-China HQ, and under documented exclusions the cell's disclosed capex drops to $1.16B (Longi Pataskala $600M completed 2023, Boviet Solar $435M completed 2024, plus a tail of smaller projects). The cell stays above the $100m FDI-First threshold under both rules [2].

Manufacturing exports rose to $42.88B (+21%); manufacturing RCA fell to 1.02 and factory-stage RCA fell to 1.07. Finished-product HS 854140 exports declined by approximately $350M, contributing −4.7% of the $7.46B basket increase. Growth concentrated in wafer-manufacturing equipment (HS 848690, $2.77B, 37.1%), module-production equipment (HS 848620, $1.28B, 17.1%), ammonia for PECVD silicon deposition (HS 281410, $490M), module-glass-loading equipment (HS 847989, $480M), and silicon wafers (HS 381800, $465M).

The pattern is consistent with domestic-content industrial policy pulling finished-module production into the US market for domestic installation while equipment and intermediate-stage capabilities continue to compete globally. The timing (IRA enacted 2022) and directional pattern (finished exports declining, equipment exports growing) match what a domestic-content reorientation would produce, though the trade panel alone does not identify the mechanism.

PC pre 0.048 · FDI $2.16B panel / $1.16B documented / 9 projects · finished share −4.7% · factory RCA 1.27 → 1.07 · signal flat

4. Indonesia / Solar

Alumina and ammonia-for-PECVD dominate the basket; the same midstream-materials playbook as Indonesia/Battery applied to a different mineral set.

Indonesia entered with very low direct solar PC (0.011), modest broad RCA footprint (0.340), and $1.75B of manufacturing-only solar exports at RCA 0.45 and factory-stage RCA 0.14. The panel records 12 projects and $17.57B in disclosed capex, almost entirely Xinyi Glass Rempang ($11.50B, announced 2023; Hong Kong HQ) and Hongshi Group West Java ($5.00B, announced 2024; mainland HQ), both upstream solar-glass and polysilicon projects. Smaller cells include Flat Glass Group ($290M), Lesso ($250M), and Trina Solar Limited ($100M). Under documented exclusions (Xinyi as HK), the cell's disclosed capex drops to $6.07B; the cell stays above the $100m threshold [2].

Manufacturing exports rose to $4.02B (+130%); manufacturing RCA to 0.59; factory-stage RCA barely moved (0.14 → 0.18). The growth is predominantly processed materials: alumina (HS 281820, $1.02B, 44.8% of the delta), ammonia for PECVD silicon deposition (HS 281410, $732M, 32.3%), finished modules (HS 854140, $294M, 12.9%), aluminum (HS 760120), and polysilicon production equipment (HS 841989). Alumina (HS 281820) appears in both the battery and solar baskets; end-use allocation between battery and solar customers is not observed in trade data. Xinyi Rempang's commercial output is targeted for 2026–2027 and contributes nothing to the 2022–2024 window.

The pattern is consistent with conversion of mineral endowment into processed-material exports, with China-HQ capital co-located. But the dominant codes are multi-use commodities: alumina (HS 281820) sits in six green-technology baskets, and ammonia (HS 281410) is generic synthetic ammonia used across fertilizer and petrochemicals. Indonesia's aluminium ramp follows the general downstreaming (hilirisasi) mandate, and the solar local-content rule (TKDN) targets cell-to-module assembly, not aluminium, so no solar-specific policy links this growth to the solar value chain. Public copy should read it as commodity growth adjacent to solar, not finished-module entry.

PC pre 0.011 · FDI $17.57B panel / $6.07B documented / 12 projects · finished share 13.0% · factory RCA 0.14 → 0.18 · signal strong_growth

5. Saudi Arabia / Solar

A single petrochemical feedstock (ammonia for PECVD silicon deposition) drives 71.6% of the basket increase.

Saudi Arabia entered with very low direct solar PC (0.005), broad RCA footprint 0.333, and modest manufacturing-only solar exports ($1.43B in 2017–2019 at RCA 0.31 and factory-stage RCA 0.07). The China-HQ FDI signal is 5 projects and $2.57B in disclosed capex (four of five disclose values), led by TCL Zhonghuan ($1.50B, announced 2023) and Jinko Solar ($1.00B, announced 2024). All five projects are 2023–2024 announcements; none ramped during the 2022–2024 trade window.

Manufacturing exports rose to $2.94B (+105%); manufacturing RCA to 0.38; factory-stage RCA declined (0.07 → 0.04). Ammonia for PECVD (HS 281410) contributes $1.08B, or 71.6% of the $1.51B basket increase. Solar-glass ethylene polymers (HS 390130, $184M) and polyethylene polymers (HS 392010, $112M) are second and third; alumina (HS 281820) fourth. Finished-product exports (HS 854140) round to zero of the basket increase.

The pattern is consistent with petrochemical-base extension: a single-chemical specialization rather than a move into module manufacturing. Ammonia is overwhelmingly a fertilizer and petrochemical product, not a solar-specific feedstock, so the 71.6% reads as commodity export growth adjacent to the solar supply chain rather than demonstrated solar entry. The 2023–2024 China-HQ announcements are co-located but timed too late to have contributed to the 2022–2024 trade outcome; whether they will shift Saudi/Solar from feedstock to module manufacturing is an open question for a 2027-onward trade window.

PC pre 0.005 · FDI $2.57B / 5 projects · finished share 0.0% · factory RCA 0.07 → 0.04 · signal flat

Cross-cell observations

  1. Same Lens-1 quadrant, different Lens-2 family: Vietnam and Malaysia are both Prepared Magnet. Vietnam is a finished-product platform (67.7% finished, factory-stage RCA crossing 1.0); Malaysia is an equipment platform (1.2% finished, factory-stage RCA already 2.78 and rising). The Lens-1 label compresses two qualitatively different stories.
  1. Same Lens-1 quadrant, three Lens-2 variants: Indonesia, USA, and Saudi are all FDI-First Experiment. USA is Equipment / process-tools (equipment exports up, finished modules down). Indonesia and Saudi are both Midstream materials, but Indonesia is broad-portfolio (alumina + ammonia) and Saudi is narrow single-chemical (one HS code, 71.6%).
  1. The largest single 2020–2024 China-HQ Solar announcement (Xinyi Rempang, $11.5B) cannot have produced any of the measured 2022–2024 trade outcome. Commercial output is targeted for 2026–2027. The same timing constraint applies to Saudi's TCL Zhonghuan (2023) and Jinko (2024) announcements.
  1. Malaysia's 1.2% finished-product share is the strongest single test of the Lens-2 spectrum. A reader using only Lens 1 would classify Malaysia as a finished-module exporter; the HS6 decomposition shows the opposite. Single-lens classification would misclassify.
  1. USA/Solar's negative finished-product share (−4.7%) is the cleanest single observation of a reshoring-pattern divergence: equipment + intermediate exports grew $7.4B while finished-module exports declined by approximately $350M. The combination is consistent with post-IRA domestic-content policy.
  1. Indonesia uses the same midstream playbook in two sectors. Indonesia/Battery (nickel mattes + cathode precursors) and Indonesia/Solar (alumina + ammonia for PECVD) share the family classification and the country; alumina (HS 281820) appears in both baskets.
  1. The aggregate FDI-First Solar finding tracks the Battery finding: across the broader scored FDI-First panel (24 cells under both the panel rule and documented exclusions), only Cambodia/Solar crossed factory-stage RCA = 1 from below in the 2022–2024 trade window, and that crossing is US-tariff transshipment rather than indigenous capability [1].

References

Markdown source on GitHub