Atlas diagnostic / Readiness map

China-HQ solar FDI readiness, mapped

Every country scored for solar on the same two questions as Lens 1: pre-2020 capability (PC level, 2015–2019 mean) and disclosed China-HQ FDI capex (2020–2024). Each country is colored by its readiness quadrant. The map reads as concentration: most of the world is bypassed; the colored countries are the story. It opens in Overview; the view control adds outcome marks (cells whose 2022–2024 export outcome disagrees with the quadrant expectation) and regional callout lists.

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Outcome glyphs (manufacturing exports, 2022–2024)

  • ↑↑ FDI-first experiment crossed manufacturing-basket RCA = 1 (factory-stage RCA may not have; see hover)
  • ⚠ FDI-first bet has not gained manufacturing export share
  • ⌛ FDI-first bet is too recent for the export window
  • ★ Manufacturing export growth without China-HQ FDI

Reading the map

Quadrant floors: PC = 0.10 (capability) and disclosed China-HQ capex = $100m (real FDI bet). Hover any colored country for its PC, capex, exports, and RCA.

The map opens in Overview (choropleth and key only). Use the view control above the map to add outcome marks and the regional callout lists; every layer reads from the same scored table.

Two grays: Bypassed / Lagging is a scored cell with no China-HQ FDI; Outside capability panel is a country with no data coverage. Hong Kong and Singapore are Untapped Candidates but too small to render at this resolution, so they appear in the callout boxes only.

The ★ mark on small commodity exporters (e.g. Bahrain, Trinidad on solar) can reflect RCA-denominator artifacts, not demonstrated entry; midstream commodity growth is adjacent to, not proof of, sector entry. Magnitudes use source-panel HQ.