Atlas diagnostic / Lens 1

China-HQ green FDI readiness: capability vs FDI intensity

Country × technology cells positioned by pre-FDI capability (PC level, 2015–2019 mean; EV: 2018–2019, the first years of the dedicated EV capability model; square-root display scale) against measured China-HQ FDI capex (2020–2024 announced window, inverse-hyperbolic-sine scale). Quadrant boundaries are drawn at the absolute classification floors: PC ≥ 0.10 (capability) and capex ≥ $100m (real FDI bet). The visual regions exactly match the color labels. Momentum, broad RCA footprint, and project count are encoded via bubble size and tooltip rather than position.

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Solar

Battery

EV

Quadrant (absolute-floor classification)

  • Prepared Magnet: PC ≥ 0.10 and capex ≥ $100m
  • Untapped Candidate: PC ≥ 0.10, no China-HQ FDI projects
  • FDI-First Experiment: PC < 0.10, capex ≥ $100m
  • Bypassed / Lagging: PC < 0.10, no China-HQ FDI projects
  • Active, magnitude below/unknown: projects exist but disclosed capex is below $100m or missing
  • China (FDI source): the origin of these flows, shown apart from the destination typology

Bubble area

  • ∝ project count in 2020–2024 window
  • (Count is 100% observed; capex disclosure is partial)

Border style (capex disclosure)

  • Solid: ≥ 50% of projects disclose
  • Dashed: 0% < disclosure < 50%
  • Dotted: 0% disclose (count only)

Outcome glyphs (manufacturing exports)

  • ↑↑ FDI-first experiment crossed the manufacturing-basket RCA = 1 line (hover for the stricter factory-stage cut; the only mark that also crosses factory-stage is Cambodia/Solar, which is US-tariff transshipment)
  • ⚠ FDI-first bet has not gained export share
  • ⏳ FDI-first bet is too recent to score
  • ★ Export growth without China-HQ FDI

Classification floors: PC = 0.10 and disclosed China-HQ capex = $100m. PC uses a square-root display scale; tick labels remain raw values. Bubble size is project count; border style shows capex disclosure ( of Solar+Battery+EV projects disclose value; Solar, Battery, EV). Glyphs summarize manufacturing-only export outcomes. FDI magnitudes use source-panel HQ; an audited HQ screen changes three featured-cell magnitudes but no featured-cell quadrant assignments.