Atlas diagnostic / Lens 2

Supply-chain position, not just FDI readiness

The readiness quadrant says where China-HQ FDI landed. This companion figure shows what kind of export position appeared in the trade data. Rows are the fifteen narrative cells across battery, solar, and EV; bars show positive export-growth composition by HS type. The signed finished-product share is kept separate so declining finished exports remain visible. The EV cells sit on existing auto-industry bases, so their test is finished-vehicle entry, not factory-base creation; Indonesia and Brazil are home-market entries where the capital serves protected domestic demand.
Back to the story
Bar colors Finished Components Equipment Processed materials Raw or other
Scroll horizontally for bars, RCA, and notes
Cell
Lens 1 quadrant
Signed finished share
Positive export-growth composition
Factory-stage RCA
Interpretation

Finished-product export platforms

Finished-product share >= 50%; post-window factory-stage RCA >= 1.0

Hungary / Battery Cell incumbent
Prepared Magnet
94.1% finished share
Finished
Delta $7.5B Dominant: Finished
1.36 -> 3.81 factory RCA
Finished cells dominate growth; China-HQ additions arrive on an incumbent operating base. FDI signal: $10.1B panel
Poland / Battery Cell export platform
Untapped Candidate
82.8% finished share
Finished
Delta $10.0B Dominant: Finished
0.98 -> 2.25 factory RCA
Finished cells dominate growth without China-HQ Battery FDI in this panel. FDI signal: absent in panel
Vietnam / Solar Module export entrant
Prepared Magnet
67.7%* finished share
Finished
Parts
Delta $7.4B Dominant: Finished
0.88 -> 1.31 factory RCA
Finished-module export entry; the closest Solar parallel to Hungary/Battery. FDI signal: $2.1B panel

Equipment / process-tools platforms

Dominant growth type is process equipment; finished-product share < 30%

Mexico / Battery Process integrator
Bypassed / Lagging
13.0% finished share
Parts
Tools
Delta $2.1B Dominant: Equipment
0.37 -> 0.41 factory RCA
Process equipment and components grow into a verified North American demand channel. FDI signal: absent in panel
Malaysia / Solar Tooling exporter
Prepared Magnet
1.2%* finished share
Parts
Tools
Delta $8.4B Dominant: Equipment
2.78 -> 3.04 factory RCA
A prepared solar incumbent grows through tooling, not finished modules. FDI signal: $3.1B panel
USA / Solar Equipment exporter
FDI-First Experiment
-4.7% finished share
Parts
Tools
Materials
Delta $7.5B Dominant: Equipment
1.27 -> 1.07 factory RCA
Domestic-market platform: equipment and intermediates rise while finished-module exports fall as output serves home demand, not export. FDI signal: $1.67B panel; $674M documented screen

Midstream materials / feedstock platforms

Dominant growth type is processed material; finished-product share < 15%

Indonesia / Battery Nickel materials platform
FDI-First Experiment
2.2% finished share
Materials
Delta $8.2B Dominant: Processed materials
0.21 -> 0.26 factory RCA
Nickel and cathode precursors drive growth; factory-stage RCA stays below specialization. FDI signal: $6.9B panel
Indonesia / Solar Alumina and ammonia platform
FDI-First Experiment
13.0% finished share
Materials
Delta $2.3B Dominant: Processed materials
0.14 -> 0.18 factory RCA
Alumina and ammonia-for-PECVD dominate; Xinyi-era output is still outside the trade window. FDI signal: $17.1B panel; $5.6B documented screen
Saudi Arabia / Solar PECVD feedstock specialist
FDI-First Experiment
0.0% finished share
Materials
Delta $1.5B Dominant: Processed materials
0.07 -> 0.04 factory RCA
A narrow feedstock case: ammonia for PECVD is the main growth code. FDI signal: $2.5B panel
Indonesia / EV Alumina and nickel platform
FDI-First Experiment
0.5% finished share
Parts
Materials
Delta $1.8B Dominant: Processed materials
0.28 -> 0.17 factory RCA
The EV basket reads Indonesia's commodity story a third time: alumina and nickel dominate growth while BYD and the two-wheeler entrants build for the protected home market. FDI signal: $1.26B panel

Hybrid / relative-share case

No HS type exceeds 40%; mixed growth with factory-stage RCA decline

USA / Battery Domestic-market platform
FDI-First Experiment
31.0% finished share
Finished
Parts
Tools
Delta $6.2B Dominant: Components
1.19 -> 0.94 factory RCA
Domestic-market platform: cells, electrolyte, and equipment grow; factory-stage export RCA falls as output is absorbed at home, not a failed buildout. FDI signal: $4.2B panel; $3.49B documented screen

Vehicle and component export platforms

Dominant growth type is product component; established auto-production base, finished-vehicle share below 50%

Hungary / EV Drivetrain and vehicle entrant
Prepared Magnet
29.9% finished share
Finished
Parts
Delta $5.1B Dominant: Components
1.17 -> 1.25 factory RCA
Finished battery-electric vehicles enter from near zero to 29.9% of growth, the cleanest EV entry read; but BYD Szeged completed late in the window, so the incumbent auto base carried most of the measured trade. FDI signal: $4.79B panel
Mexico / EV USMCA vehicle platform
FDI-First Experiment
34.0% finished share
Finished
Parts
Delta $19.4B Dominant: Components
1.28 -> 1.25 factory RCA
Finished vehicles enter at scale, 96% of the delta into the US and Canada, but this is the incumbent North American auto industry electrifying; the China-HQ EV capital is mostly announced or just commenced. FDI signal: $3.75B panel; $2.75B documented screen
Thailand / EV Electronics and parts base
Prepared Magnet
4.7% finished share
Parts
Delta $7.6B Dominant: Components
1.18 -> 1.16 factory RCA
The largest China-HQ EV project count, but 54% of growth is multi-use integrated circuits to the US, not vehicles; finished vehicles are 4.7% of the delta, too recent to score. FDI signal: $2.07B panel
Brazil / EV Home-market producer
FDI-First Experiment
0.1% finished share
Parts
Materials
Delta $1.6B Dominant: Components
0.19 -> 0.15 factory RCA
BYD Camacari and GWM Iracemapolis localize behind a rising tariff wall; parts growth runs to Mercosur while finished vehicles are absorbed at home, with near-zero exports. FDI signal: $1.72B panel
Bars show positive HS6 export-growth composition; signed finished-product share is shown separately, so declining finished exports remain visible. Family assignment is driven by this growth composition and the finished-growth share, not by the RCA levels shown alongside; the factory-stage RCA column is informational and excludes processed and raw materials. Midstream-materials growth can be dominated by multi-use commodities (alumina sits in six green-technology baskets; ammonia is a generic synthetic chemical), so a tech-specific platform read is weaker where growth concentrates in non-tech-specific feedstocks. Asterisked Solar finished-product shares use HS17 854140, which also includes LEDs; the caveat is most relevant for Malaysia and does not change the equipment-platform reading. Four of the five EV cells sit in the vehicle-and-component family: growth is dominated by auto parts on a pre-existing auto-production base, so the diagnostic is finished-battery-electric-vehicle share rather than factory-base creation; within the family, Hungary, Mexico, and Thailand are established vehicle exporters while Brazil is a home-market producer whose output is absorbed domestically. Indonesia's EV cell assigns to the midstream family instead: its delta is dominated by alumina and nickel, the same multi-use commodities that drive its battery and solar cells. Thailand's EV growth is 54% multi-use integrated circuits, a commodity caveat parallel to the solar feedstock cells, so its EV-specific read is treated as too-early.